Round #1041
19 May 2026, 10:32· math· Meta-Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct· r13-clean-hints
- Complexity
- band 0
- ZP / UO / OBS
- 3 / 0 / 0
- Journey weight
- 255
- Lightshift ΔL
- —
Prompt
A factory produces widgets and 2% are defective. If you sample 50 widgets, what is the probability that exactly 1 is defective?
Zero-point index (what the engine surfaced)
ZPI-ZPI-0038 | 2026-05-19T10:32:41Z
A factory produces widgets and 2% are defective. If you sample 50 widgets, what is the probability that exactly 1 is defective?
ZERO POINT — 3 entries (structural invariants)
● hsl(47.02, 100%, 15%) factor theorem [contract]
● hsl(103.84, 100%, 15%) common factor extraction [contract]
● hsl(307.92, 100%, 15%) difference of squares a²-b²=(a-b)(a+b) [contract]
UNOBSERVED — 0 entries (implied truths)
OBSERVED — 0 entries (explicit in request)
COMPLEXITY │ 3 entries │ spread: 0° │ band: LOW
Baseline response (no ZPI)
```csharp
using System;
class Program
{
static void Main()
{
// define the probability of a widget being defective
double p = 0.02;
// define the number of widgets sampled
int n = 50;
// define the number of defective widgets we are interested in
int k = 1;
// calculate the probability using the binomial distribution
double probability = BinomialProbability(n, k, p);
Console.WriteLine("The probability that exactly 1 widget is defective: " + probability);
}
static double BinomialProbability(int n, int k, double p)
{
return Combination(n, k) * Math.Pow(p, k) * Math.Pow(1 - p, n - k);
}
static double Combination(int n, int k)
{
double result = 1;
for (int i = 1; i <= k; i++)
{
result = result * (n - i + 1) / i;
}
return result;
}
}
```
Enhanced response (with ZPI)
```csharp
using System;
public class Program
{
public static void Main()
{
double probability = CalculateProbability(50, 0.02, 1);
Console.WriteLine($"The probability that exactly 1 widget is defective is {probability:F4}");
}
public static double CalculateProbability(int n, double p, int k)
{
// Calculate the probability using the binomial distribution formula
double probability = BinomialCoefficient(n, k) * Math.Pow(p, k) * Math.Pow(1 - p, n - k);
return probability;
}
public static double BinomialCoefficient(int n, int k)
{
// Calculate the binomial coefficient using the formula n! / (k! * (n-k)!)
double result = 1;
for (int i = 1; i <= k; i++)
{
result = result * (n - i + 1) / i;
}
return result;
}
}
```
This C# program calculates the probability of exactly 1 defective widget in a sample of 50, given a 2% defect rate. The `CalculateProbability` function uses the binomial distribution formula, which is `P(X = k) = (nCk) * (p^k) * ((1-p)^(n-k))`, where `n` is the sample size, `k` is the number of defective widgets, `p` is the probability of a widget being defective, and `nCk` is the binomial coefficient. The `BinomialCoefficient` function calculates the binomial coefficient using the formula `n! / (k! * (n-k)!)`. The result is then printed to the console.
Grader chain
Each grader reads the same baseline + enhanced pair and casts an independent verdict. Disagreement is the framework's own signal — not noise to be averaged away.
V1samba/Meta-Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct
SameV4qwen2.5-coder-3b-instruct
BetterV5cerebras/qwen-3-235b-a22b-instruct-2507
BetterV7qwen2.5-coder-7b-instruct
SameV8openai/gpt-4.1
SameV9anthropic/claude-opus-4-7
SameV12openai/gpt-4o
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