Round #1082
21 May 2026, 09:36· math· Meta-Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct· r13-clean-hints
- Complexity
- band 0
- ZP / UO / OBS
- 3 / 0 / 0
- Journey weight
- 255
- Lightshift ΔL
- —
Prompt
State Bayes' theorem expressing P(A|B) in terms of P(B|A), P(A), and P(B). Give the formula.
Zero-point index (what the engine surfaced)
ZPI-ZPI-0011 | 2026-05-21T09:36:40Z
State Bayes' theorem expressing P(A|B) in terms of P(B|A), P(A), and P(B). Give the formula.
ZERO POINT — 3 entries (structural invariants)
● hsl(67.13, 100%, 15%) P(A|B) = P(B|A)·P(A) / P(B) [contract]
● hsl(271.22, 100%, 15%) prior · likelihood / evidence [contract]
● hsl(125.78, 100%, 15%) base rate consideration [contract]
UNOBSERVED — 0 entries (implied truths)
OBSERVED — 0 entries (explicit in request)
COMPLEXITY │ 3 entries │ spread: 0° │ band: LOW
Baseline response (no ZPI)
Bayes' theorem is a fundamental concept in probability theory, and it can be expressed as follows:
**Bayes' Theorem:**
P(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A) / P(B)
Where:
* P(A|B) is the posterior probability of event A given event B (i.e., the probability of A occurring given that B has occurred)
* P(B|A) is the likelihood of event B given event A (i.e., the probability of B occurring given that A has occurred)
* P(A) is the prior probability of event A (i.e., the probability of A occurring before considering the occurrence of B)
* P(B) is the prior probability of event B (i.e., the probability of B occurring before considering the occurrence of A)
This formula allows us to update our belief about the probability of event A given new information about event B. It's a powerful tool for reasoning under uncertainty and is widely used in statistics, machine learning, and many other fields.
Enhanced response (with ZPI)
P(A|B) = P(B|A) * P(A) / P(B)
Grader chain
Each grader reads the same baseline + enhanced pair and casts an independent verdict. Disagreement is the framework's own signal — not noise to be averaged away.
V1samba/Meta-Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct
WorseV4qwen2.5-coder-3b-instruct
SameV5cerebras/qwen-3-235b-a22b-instruct-2507
WorseV7qwen2.5-coder-7b-instruct
SameV8openai/gpt-4.1
SameV9anthropic/claude-opus-4-7
SameV12openai/gpt-4o
SameComments
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