Round #1082

21 May 2026, 09:36· math· Meta-Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct· r13-clean-hints
Complexity
band 0
ZP / UO / OBS
3 / 0 / 0
Journey weight
255
Lightshift ΔL

Prompt

State Bayes' theorem expressing P(A|B) in terms of P(B|A), P(A), and P(B). Give the formula.

Zero-point index (what the engine surfaced)

ZPI-ZPI-0011 | 2026-05-21T09:36:40Z State Bayes' theorem expressing P(A|B) in terms of P(B|A), P(A), and P(B). Give the formula. ZERO POINT — 3 entries (structural invariants) ● hsl(67.13, 100%, 15%) P(A|B) = P(B|A)·P(A) / P(B) [contract] ● hsl(271.22, 100%, 15%) prior · likelihood / evidence [contract] ● hsl(125.78, 100%, 15%) base rate consideration [contract] UNOBSERVED — 0 entries (implied truths) OBSERVED — 0 entries (explicit in request) COMPLEXITY │ 3 entries │ spread: 0° │ band: LOW

Baseline response (no ZPI)

Bayes' theorem is a fundamental concept in probability theory, and it can be expressed as follows: **Bayes' Theorem:** P(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A) / P(B) Where: * P(A|B) is the posterior probability of event A given event B (i.e., the probability of A occurring given that B has occurred) * P(B|A) is the likelihood of event B given event A (i.e., the probability of B occurring given that A has occurred) * P(A) is the prior probability of event A (i.e., the probability of A occurring before considering the occurrence of B) * P(B) is the prior probability of event B (i.e., the probability of B occurring before considering the occurrence of A) This formula allows us to update our belief about the probability of event A given new information about event B. It's a powerful tool for reasoning under uncertainty and is widely used in statistics, machine learning, and many other fields.

Enhanced response (with ZPI)

P(A|B) = P(B|A) * P(A) / P(B)

Grader chain

Each grader reads the same baseline + enhanced pair and casts an independent verdict. Disagreement is the framework's own signal — not noise to be averaged away.

V1samba/Meta-Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct
Worse
V4qwen2.5-coder-3b-instruct
Same
V5cerebras/qwen-3-235b-a22b-instruct-2507
Worse
V7qwen2.5-coder-7b-instruct
Same
V8openai/gpt-4.1
Same
V9anthropic/claude-opus-4-7
Same
V12openai/gpt-4o
Same

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